After having read some of the discussions on the previous post, I think it might be good to speak some sobering words and try to see things in perspective.
- The new iPhone is extremely cheap, even cheaper than an 8GB iTouch..... BUT you will have to sign a two year contract with AT&T (see here) for most likely a minimum of $39.99 a month.... or sign and then break the contract and pay the termination fees (probably around $200). So that puts the price tag right back at $399. My guess is that AT&T is subsidizing Apple those $200 for every phone sold.
- AT&T is still the exclusive U.S. carrier...
- Rumors are going around that you won't be able to buy an iPhone without signing a contract, either in the Apple Store or the AT&T store (see here)
- Regarding the iPhone 3G itself, how many of the current iPhone users would actually upgrade to the new model? Most likely those users who are already with AT&T and who are willing to spend the additional $199. I would guess that for most of the hacked phone users (who don't wan't to be with AT&T to start with), dishing out $199 + cancellation fee would be a little over the top.
- Steve mentioned that around 6 million of the original iPhones were sold. It was estimated that around 750,000-1 million phones were hacked at the end of Jan. 2008 (see here) and maybe it is even up to 20-25% now. How many of these phone users would want a plug-in GPS module? Even at less than 1%, it would be worth to make the effort.
- Note that even today after the announcement, iPhone users have been voting that they still would like a GPS module.
- Lastly, don't forget the iTouch users. The iTouch doesn't have GPS (at least for the time being), so who will take care of them?